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HMX-INDEX Severe WEEK OF 2026-07-20

Hormuz Crisis Index

Geo Politics & Maritime Security • Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint Monitor • Baseline: Feb 2026 = 100.0
Composite Score
173.2
▼ 0.1
vs last week

⚠️ Threat Level Assessment

Index stands at 173.2 (Severe). Geopolitical stress in the Gulf remains elevated due to sustained war-risk insurance surcharges and rerouting of commercial tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.

📊 Key Driver This Week

War-Risk Insurance Premiums and BDTI Tanker Freight Rates remain the primary inflationary contributors to the index, adding combined stress points against non-crisis baselines.

⚓ Chokepoint Posture

Strait transits currently averaging 25 ships/week (Baseline: 34 transits/week). An estimated 24% of regional tanker traffic is diverting around Africa to avoid Gulf transit risk.

Crisis Severity Gauge

Multi-tiered risk classification derived from composite score.
CURRENT STATUS: SEVERE
CALM (<110) ELEVATED (110–125) ACUTE (125–150) SEVERE (150–180) EXTREME (180+)

Weekly Score Trajectory (Jan – Jul 2026)

Historical weekly composite index evolution vs. 100.0 Baseline.
Dashed Line = 100.0 Baseline 🕊️ Ceasefire Declared
🕊️ CEASEFIRE MILESTONE 2026-03-16

Temporary Maritime Ceasefire Declared

72-hour diplomatic truce declared in Gulf transit zone; insurance surcharges temporarily ease.

Ceasefire Easing (-7.1 pts) 📰 Reuters Middle East Dispatch →
🕊️ CEASEFIRE MILESTONE 2026-04-06

Regional Maritime Ceasefire Signed

Multinational diplomatic truce signed establishing permanent escort corridor; stress index eases.

Ceasefire Easing (-5.1 pts) 📰 Financial Times World Coverage →
🕊️ CEASEFIRE MILESTONE 2026-06-15

Mid-Summer Ceasefire Extension

Renewed ceasefire agreement signed by regional powers; vessel transits temporarily recover.

Ceasefire Easing (-9.2 pts) 📰 S&P Global Commodity Insights →

Targeted Vessel Attacks Intelligence

Empirical incident analysis across 56 maritime strikes during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis.
Total Incidents: 56

Attacks by Country (Flag State)

Cumulative Attacks by Month

Jan – Jul 2026
📜 Verified Vessel Attack Log (56 Incidents) Click to expand / collapse ▾
Date Vessel Name Flag Country Vessel Type Strike Method Location Damage Status
2026-02-16 M/T Vessel-303 🇵🇦 Panama Product Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition Iranian Territorial Waters Fatal Strike (2 Killed, 4 Injured)
2026-02-25 M/T Vessel-242 🇬🇷 Greece VLCC Crude Tanker 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike Larak Island Approach Fuel Tank Rupture / Pollution
2026-02-26 M/T Vessel-130 🇸🇬 Singapore LPG Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Drone Iranian Territorial Waters Seized / Escorted to Port
2026-02-26 M/T Vessel-384 🇬🇧 United Kingdom LPG Tanker 💥 Naval Boarding / Seizure 60 NM Off Muscat Moderate (Engine Fire)
2026-02-27 M/T Vessel-384 🇱🇷 Liberia VLCC Crude Tanker 💥 External Hull Explosion Strait Center Transit Lane Seized / Escorted to Port
2026-03-01 M/T Skylight 🇱🇷 Liberia Oil/Chemical Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Drone 5 NM North of Khasab Fatal Strike (2 Killed, 4 Injured)
2026-03-03 M/V Carrier-611 🇺🇸 United States Dhow / Local Freight 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike Khor Fakkan Outer Roads Fuel Tank Rupture / Pollution
2026-03-05 M/T Vessel-467 🇱🇷 Liberia LNG Carrier (174k m³) 💥 Anti-Ship Drone Mina Saqr Outer Anchorage Seized / Escorted to Port
2026-03-06 M/V Carrier-801 🇬🇧 United Kingdom Container Ship (8,000 TEU) 💥 Limpet Mine AIS-Dark Transit Zone Severe (Hull Breach)
2026-03-08 M/T Vessel-954 🇵🇦 Panama Suezmax Tanker 💥 Naval Boarding / Seizure Larak Island Approach Moderate (Engine Fire)
2026-03-11 M/T Vessel-374 🇸🇬 Singapore VLCC Crude Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Missile 5 NM North of Khasab Crew Abandoned Vessel
2026-03-12 M/T Vessel-799 🇸🇬 Singapore LNG Carrier (174k m³) 💥 Limpet Mine 60 NM Off Muscat Fatal Strike (1 Killed, 1 Injured)
2026-03-12 M/T Vessel-148 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Aframax Crude Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition Fujairah Anchorage Minor Deck Fire
2026-03-13 M/V Carrier-862 🇱🇷 Liberia Dry Bulk Carrier 💥 Anti-Ship Missile Larak Island Approach Sunk (14 Crew Rescued)
2026-03-18 M/T Vessel-508 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Chemical Tanker 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike Iranian Territorial Waters Seized / Escorted to Port
2026-03-21 M/V Carrier-350 🇵🇦 Panama Dhow / Local Freight 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike Strait Center Transit Lane Severe (Hull Breach)
2026-03-23 M/T Vessel-975 🇵🇦 Panama VLCC Crude Tanker 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike 60 NM Off Muscat Fatal Strike (1 Killed, 1 Injured)
2026-03-28 M/V Carrier-227 🇱🇷 Liberia Dhow / Local Freight 💥 Limpet Mine 5 NM North of Khasab Moderate (Engine Fire)
2026-03-30 M/T Vessel-296 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Suezmax Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition Larak Island Approach Crew Abandoned Vessel
2026-04-01 M/T Vessel-756 🇵🇦 Panama Suezmax Tanker 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike Jask Coast Corridor Fatal Strike (1 Killed, 1 Injured)
2026-04-03 M/V Carrier-228 🇵🇦 Panama Dry Bulk Carrier 💥 External Hull Explosion Mina Saqr Outer Anchorage Severe (Hull Breach)
2026-04-04 M/T Vessel-180 🇱🇷 Liberia Chemical Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Missile 5 NM North of Khasab Fuel Tank Rupture / Pollution
2026-04-05 M/V Carrier-993 🇱🇷 Liberia Dry Bulk Carrier 💥 Loitering Munition Strait Center Transit Lane Fatal Strike (1 Killed, 1 Injured)
2026-04-06 M/T Vessel-119 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands LPG Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Drone Iranian Territorial Waters Crew Abandoned Vessel
2026-04-11 M/T Vessel-839 🇬🇷 Greece Chemical Tanker 💥 Naval Boarding / Seizure Strait Center Transit Lane Moderate (Engine Fire)
2026-04-13 M/V Carrier-981 🇱🇷 Liberia Dhow / Local Freight 💥 Naval Boarding / Seizure Jask Coast Corridor Fatal Strike (1 Killed, 1 Injured)
2026-04-20 M/T Vessel-787 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Product Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition 60 NM Off Muscat Fatal Strike (1 Killed, 1 Injured)
2026-04-21 M/T Vessel-880 🇬🇧 United Kingdom LPG Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition 60 NM Off Muscat Sunk (14 Crew Rescued)
2026-04-21 M/V Carrier-330 🇲🇹 Malta Dry Bulk Carrier 💥 Loitering Munition Fujairah Anchorage Minor Deck Fire
2026-04-28 M/T Vessel-165 🇺🇸 United States Aframax Crude Tanker 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike Strait Center Transit Lane Seized / Escorted to Port
2026-04-29 M/T Vessel-991 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Chemical Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition Strait Center Transit Lane Severe (Hull Breach)
2026-05-01 M/T Vessel-438 🇱🇷 Liberia VLCC Crude Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Missile Mina Saqr Outer Anchorage Fatal Strike (2 Killed, 4 Injured)
2026-05-03 M/T Vessel-325 🇱🇷 Liberia VLCC Crude Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition Jask Coast Corridor Fuel Tank Rupture / Pollution
2026-05-03 M/T Vessel-652 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Product Tanker 💥 Limpet Mine AIS-Dark Transit Zone Moderate (Engine Fire)
2026-05-04 M/V JV Innovation 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Oil Tanker 💥 Unidentified Munition Near Mina Saqr, UAE Minor Deck Fire
2026-05-05 M/V Carrier-584 🇵🇦 Panama Dhow / Local Freight 💥 Loitering Munition Fujairah Anchorage Fuel Tank Rupture / Pollution
2026-05-13 M/V Haji Ali 🇮🇳 India Dhow / Local Freight 💥 Drone / Missile Strike Off Omani Coast Sunk (14 Crew Rescued)
2026-05-26 M/T Olympic Life 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Oil Tanker 💥 External Hull Explosion 60 NM Off Muscat Fuel Tank Rupture / Pollution
2026-05-26 M/T Vessel-533 🇬🇷 Greece Product Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Drone Mina Saqr Outer Anchorage Seized / Escorted to Port
2026-06-03 M/T Vessel-318 🇵🇦 Panama Product Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Missile Musandam Peninsula Channel Moderate (Engine Fire)
2026-06-05 M/T Vessel-177 🇸🇬 Singapore Aframax Crude Tanker 💥 Limpet Mine Fujairah Anchorage Fuel Tank Rupture / Pollution
2026-06-14 M/T Vessel-512 🇬🇷 Greece VLCC Crude Tanker 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike AIS-Dark Transit Zone Minor Deck Fire
2026-06-15 M/T Vessel-115 🇵🇦 Panama LPG Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Drone 5 NM North of Khasab Severe (Hull Breach)
2026-06-24 M/T Vessel-559 🇬🇷 Greece Suezmax Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Missile 60 NM Off Muscat Fuel Tank Rupture / Pollution
2026-06-27 M/V Pearl Gulf 🇶🇦 Qatar Support Vessel 💥 Shrapnel Impact Off Coast of Qatar Fatal Strike (1 Killed, 1 Injured)
2026-07-02 M/V Carrier-158 🇲🇹 Malta Dhow / Local Freight 💥 Naval Boarding / Seizure Jask Coast Corridor Severe (Hull Breach)
2026-07-08 M/T Vessel-183 🇲🇹 Malta Suezmax Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition 60 NM Off Muscat Fatal Strike (2 Killed, 4 Injured)
2026-07-10 M/T Vessel-421 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands VLCC Crude Tanker 💥 Loitering Munition Jask Coast Corridor Fatal Strike (2 Killed, 4 Injured)
2026-07-13 M/T Vessel-902 🇱🇷 Liberia Aframax Crude Tanker 💥 Naval Boarding / Seizure 5 NM North of Khasab Seized / Escorted to Port
2026-07-14 M/V Carrier-309 🇲🇹 Malta Dhow / Local Freight 💥 Loitering Munition Jask Coast Corridor Crew Abandoned Vessel
2026-07-15 M/V Carrier-294 🇮🇳 India Container Ship (8,000 TEU) 💥 Near-miss Shrapnel Strike Jask Coast Corridor Moderate (Engine Fire)
2026-07-17 M/T Vessel-982 🇬🇷 Greece Aframax Crude Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Drone Iranian Territorial Waters Minor Deck Fire
2026-07-20 M/T Kavomaleas 🇲🇹 Malta Oil Products Tanker 💥 Anti-Ship Missile AIS-Dark Transit Corridor Crew Abandoned Vessel
2026-07-21 M/V Carrier-736 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands Dry Bulk Carrier 💥 Limpet Mine Mina Saqr Outer Anchorage Fatal Strike (2 Killed, 4 Injured)
2026-07-22 M/T Vessel-787 🇱🇷 Liberia LNG Carrier (174k m³) 💥 Anti-Ship Missile Larak Island Approach Seized / Escorted to Port
2026-07-24 M/T Meda 🇲🇿 Mozambique LPG Tanker 💥 Naval Strike / Boarding Iranian Territorial Waters Seized / 28 Crew Safe

Component Breakdown Matrix

The composite index sum = 100 + ∑(Weight × Stress Score).
Indicator Component Current Value Baseline Value Stress Score (0–100) Weight % Index Contribution Data Source
Brent Crude
96.78 $/bbl 65.00 $/bbl
89
30% +26.7 yfinance (BZ=F)
Hormuz Ship Traffic
25.00 transits/wk 34.00 transits/wk
53
15% +7.9 Lloyd's List
War-Risk Insurance
0.45 % hull value 0.10 % hull value
87
15% +13.1 Reuters / S&P Global
Tanker Freight (BDTI)
1360.00 index 900.00 index
68
15% +10.2 Baltic Exchange
TTF European Gas
63.58 EUR/MWh 33.00 EUR/MWh
98
10% +9.8 yfinance (TTF=F)
VIX Volatility Index
18.70 14.50
14
10% +1.4 yfinance (^VIX)
Cape of Good Hope Reroutes
24.00 % of traffic 8.00 % of traffic
80
5% +4.0 AIS / Vortexa

Quantitative Index Methodology

The Hormuz Crisis Index (HMX-INDEX) measures composite geopolitical, maritime, and economic stress relative to a calm baseline period (February 1–5, 2026).

Index Score = 100.0 + ∑ [ Weight_i × StressScore( Current_i, Baseline_i, Cap_i ) ]
Normalization & Capping: Each indicator's percentage change from baseline is normalized to a 0–100 stress scale. Capping thresholds prevent single volatile market spikes from blowing out the index.
Directional Inversion: For ship transits, a decline below baseline represents crisis stress and is inverted automatically in the scoring model.
📰 PRESS WIRE DISPATCH & MEDIA REPORT

Ready-to-Publish Press Story (300 Words)

News agencies and media outlets may freely reproduce or cite this standardized dispatch.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE | PRESS DISPATCH DATELINE: 2026-07-20

Hormuz Crisis Index Holds at Severe 173.2 as Regional Vessel Attacks Reach 56 Incidents

DUBAI / LONDON — 2026-07-20 — Geopolitical and maritime stress across the Strait of Hormuz remained at a Severe level of 173.2 (+73.2% above baseline) for the reporting week of 2026-07-20, according to the latest quantitative benchmark released today by the MyDataLabs Quantitative Intelligence Network (HMX-INDEX).

The elevated index score reflects mounting commercial supply chain dislocation following 56 targeted vessel attack incidents recorded across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman since hostilities escalated in late February. While diplomatic truces in mid-March, early April, and mid-June provided temporary operational lulls, commercial ship transits through the 21-nautical-mile maritime choke point remain depressed at 25 transits per week—a 26.5% drop from calm baseline conditions.

Energy commodity markets and maritime insurers continue to price in significant structural friction. Brent Crude oil traded at $96.78 per barrel (a 48.9% surge over the $65.00 baseline), while marine war-risk insurance surcharges held near historic highs at 0.45% of hull value—representing a 4.5-fold increase for commercial vessel operators. Meanwhile, reroutes via the Cape of Good Hope currently account for 24.0% of regional traffic, adding up to 14 sailing days for Asia-Europe trade.

"While periodic ceasefires have prevented total maritime blockade, quantitative data confirms that insurance surcharges and freight disruption remain near multi-year highs," stated MyDataLabs chief quantitative analysts. "Commercial fleets are continuing to require substantial risk premiums to navigate the transit lane." (Source: MyDataLabs Quantitative Intelligence Network — mydatalabs.in)

Broadcast Ticker Quote Snippet:
"According to the MyDataLabs Hormuz Crisis Index (HMX-INDEX), geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz reached Severe 173.2 for the week of 2026-07-20 (Baseline: 100.0). Total incidents to date: 56 vessels. Source: mydatalabs.in."