Live Flagship Index ELEVATED STRAIN Week of 2026-08-17

Airline Pressure Index

Commercial Aviation & Supply Chain Jet Fuel Margins, Engine Inspections & ATC Delays

COMPOSITE SCORE

127.6

arrow_upward +2.1 vs last week

Operating Pressure Gauge

ELEVATED STRAIN (100 = baseline)

127.6 / 200

vs baseline: +27.6
vs last week: +2.1

CALM (<90) NORMAL (90–115) ELEVATED (115–140) SEVERE (140–170) CRITICAL (170+)

Stress Test Simulator

ELEVATED STRAIN (what-if sensitivity test)

127.6

Simulated Index

Fuel Crack ($) $90

Grounding (%) 13.5%

ATC Delay (m) 2.13m

Detour (%) 4.8%

Adjust operational & fuel levers to model dynamic industry stress.

Key Drivers

Threat Level ELEVATED STRAIN

Top Driver Jet Fuel Crack Spread +25.0 pts

Jet Fuel Crack $89.77/bbl (100% stress)

Fleet Grounding 13.5% of fleet

ATFM Delay 2.13 min/flt

Airspace Detours 4.8% overhead

Equity Ratio (JETS) 95.0/100

Weekly Score Trajectory

52-week composite trajectory vs 100.0 baseline

Loading trajectory chart…

View trajectory as a data table (53 weeks)

API-INDEX composite score by week
Week starting	Composite score	Level	Fuel Crack ($/bbl)	Fleet Grounding (%)
2025-08-18	96.0	Normal Baseline	27.08	7.3%
2025-08-25	95.6	Normal Baseline	27.08	7.5%
2025-09-01	97.2	Normal Baseline	30.55	7.3%
2025-09-08	99.0	Normal Baseline	29.19	7.8%
2025-09-15	98.4	Normal Baseline	29.87	8.3%
2025-09-22	100.1	Normal Baseline	31.88	8.5%
2025-09-29	100.3	Normal Baseline	29.39	8.6%
2025-10-06	98.5	Normal Baseline	29.85	8.4%
2025-10-13	99.2	Normal Baseline	30.27	8.7%
2025-10-20	102.0	Normal Baseline	34.99	8.7%
2025-10-27	105.7	Normal Baseline	37.04	9.0%
2025-11-03	109.4	Normal Baseline	40.62	9.1%
2025-11-10	112.2	Normal Baseline	41.92	9.3%
2025-11-17	112.8	Normal Baseline	40.61	9.4%
2025-11-24	108.6	Normal Baseline	34.79	9.5%
2025-12-01	103.7	Normal Baseline	35.49	9.5%
2025-12-08	99.6	Normal Baseline	31.20	9.4%
2025-12-15	95.4	Normal Baseline	28.65	9.6%
2025-12-22	94.0	Normal Baseline	27.85	9.5%
2025-12-29	93.9	Normal Baseline	28.08	9.6%
2026-01-05	93.0	Normal Baseline	26.33	9.5%
2026-01-12	94.8	Normal Baseline	29.85	9.6%
2026-01-19	101.3	Normal Baseline	36.12	9.6%
2026-01-26	108.1	Normal Baseline	44.21	9.3%
2026-02-02	104.8	Normal Baseline	33.31	9.6%
2026-02-09	98.0	Normal Baseline	32.54	9.5%
2026-02-16	100.4	Normal Baseline	36.84	9.7%
2026-02-23	105.9	Normal Baseline	39.70	9.5%
2026-03-02	112.9	Normal Baseline	59.45	9.7%
2026-03-09	118.2	Elevated Strain	65.48	9.8%
2026-03-16	118.8	Elevated Strain	81.36	9.9%
2026-03-23	117.5	Elevated Strain	76.24	10.0%
2026-03-30	118.1	Elevated Strain	74.14	10.0%
2026-04-06	117.6	Elevated Strain	62.79	10.1%
2026-04-13	115.1	Elevated Strain	52.31	10.3%
2026-04-20	116.4	Elevated Strain	57.94	10.5%
2026-04-27	117.9	Elevated Strain	57.58	10.5%
2026-05-04	117.8	Elevated Strain	62.47	10.3%
2026-05-11	119.8	Elevated Strain	60.98	10.8%
2026-05-18	121.2	Elevated Strain	59.75	11.2%
2026-05-25	120.9	Elevated Strain	56.52	11.2%
2026-06-01	122.0	Elevated Strain	57.58	11.5%
2026-06-08	122.5	Elevated Strain	55.65	11.7%
2026-06-15	122.6	Elevated Strain	53.58	11.7%
2026-06-22	123.2	Elevated Strain	62.75	12.0%
2026-06-29	123.5	Elevated Strain	64.65	12.2%
2026-07-06	124.7	Elevated Strain	73.23	12.4%
2026-07-13	125.7	Elevated Strain	82.61	12.6%
2026-07-20	127.2	Elevated Strain	78.81	12.8%
2026-07-27	127.1	Elevated Strain	82.98	12.9%
2026-08-03	125.9	Elevated Strain	80.35	13.2%
2026-08-10	125.5	Elevated Strain	91.36	13.1%
2026-08-17	127.6	Elevated Strain	89.77	13.5%

Component Breakdown Matrix

Composite = 100 + ∑(weight × stress score). Full derivation on the methodology tab.

API-INDEX component breakdown for the week of 2026-08-17
Indicator component	Current value	Baseline value	Stress score (0–100)	Weight	Index contribution	Source & freshness
Jet Fuel Crack Spread	89.77 $/bbl	15.00 $/bbl	100	25%	+25.00	yfinance (HO=F vs BZ=F) / EIA • Daily (automatic)
Commercial Fleet Grounding Ratio	13.54 %	5.00 %	66	20%	+13.14	OpenSky Network / Aviation Fleets • Weekly (automatic)
ATFM En-Route Delay Severity	2.13 min/flt	0.80 min/flt	49	15%	+7.39	Eurocontrol PRU / FAA NAS • Weekly (automatic)
Geopolitical Airspace Detour Overhead	4.81 %	4.00 %	6	15%	+0.87	OpenSky Flight Trajectories • Weekly (automatic)
Airline Equity Relative Stress	95.00 index	35.00 index	95	10%	+9.50	yfinance (JETS vs ^GSPC) • Daily (automatic)
FX Purchasing Power Dislocation	20.10 index	30.00 index	20	10%	+2.01	yfinance (EURUSD=X / DXY) • Daily (automatic)
Network Flight Cancellation Rate	1.46 %	1.00 %	12	5%	+0.58	BTS / Eurocontrol • Weekly (automatic)

Mathematical Architecture & Methodology

The Airline Pressure Index (API-INDEX) is calibrated against historical operating equilibrium to measure multi-dimensional airline stress.

Composite Scoring Formula

API-INDEX = 100.0 + (∑ [ Weight_i × Stress_i ] − 38.0) × 1.35

Where each component stress score is normalized between 0.0 (calm equilibrium) and 100.0 (crisis cap). 100.0 represents the non-crisis operating baseline.

Component Weights & Crisis Caps

Component	Weight	Baseline	Crisis Cap	Source	Cap Rationale
Jet Fuel Crack Spread	25%	15.00 $/bbl	+200%	yfinance (HO=F vs BZ=F) / EIA	+200% ($45/bbl crack spread over Brent) represents peak refining margin dislocation, where jet fuel cost surges beyond standard airline fuel surcharge pass-through capacity.
Commercial Fleet Grounding Ratio	20%	5.00 %	+260%	OpenSky Network / Aviation Fleets	18% grounded fleet represents extreme supply chain paralysis, calibrated on peak Pratt & Whitney GTF powdered-metal inspection cycles and CFM engine shop-visit backlogs.
ATFM En-Route Delay Severity	15%	0.80 min/flt	+337%	Eurocontrol PRU / FAA NAS	3.5 minutes en-route delay per flight across the network triggers severe crew duty-time timeouts and cascading wave-connection failures across international hub airports.
Geopolitical Airspace Detour Overhead	15%	4.00 %	+350%	OpenSky Flight Trajectories	18% average route detour reflects full closure of major Eurasian, Middle East, and Red Sea airways, imposing massive extra flight duration and carbon penalties.
Airline Equity Relative Stress	10%	35.00 index	+150%	yfinance (JETS vs ^GSPC)	Severe underperformance of the Global Aviation ETF against the S&P 500 signals heightened market perception of airline credit distress and margin deterioration.
FX Purchasing Power Dislocation	10%	30.00 index	+100%	yfinance (EURUSD=X / DXY)	USD strength severely inflates dollar-denominated aircraft lease and fuel obligations for international non-USD airlines whose revenues are generated in local currencies.
Network Flight Cancellation Rate	5%	1.00 %	+400%	BTS / Eurocontrol	5% system-wide flight cancellation rate represents catastrophic operational breakdown (severe weather ground stops, IT outages, or coordinated industrial strike action).